SUNDAY EDITION "Debkafile" Tuesday July 17, 2012 Tammuz 27, 5772


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DEBKAfile  Exclusive Report  July 17, 2012, 2:32 PM (GMT+02:00)

The fall of Damascus may be drawn-out, bloody and excruciating. It will also have wide regional repercussions, as DEBKAfile shows in this exclusive video, because neither the Assad regime nor Iran will take it lying down. Some sources report Syrian chemical weapons have already been used against rebel concentrations.

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Iranian “Breakout” in Weeks 
All watches are set for a strike against Iran in early October. 
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Russia Bails out Greece & Cyprus 
Putin buys control of their gas and oil fields and infrastructure 
more
Moscow: Assad May Stay as Figurehead 
Provided the Syrian army and security command remain in power. 
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Headlines
South Damascus embattled. Syrian high command moves to fortified site
DEBKAfile Special Report
July 17, 2012, 7:58 AM (GMT+02:00)
Southern Damacus pounded
Southern Damacus pounded

Bashar Assad has gathered in his army to defend Damascus, concentrating armored vehicles in the center.  Six srengthened Shabiha battalions have cut off the roads to the center from the two southern suburbs of Meidan and Tadmon seized by the rebels Monday, July 16, and are trying the pound them into extinction.  The Syrian general staff prepared for the last battle for Damascus by relocating its command headquarters to a well-fortified complex on Shuhada Street in the capital’s center.

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Assad receives last warning to stop moving his WMD: Top generals defect
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
July 15, 2012, 10:36 PM (GMT+02:00)
Shabiha heavies. Their generals defected
Shabiha heavies. Their generals defected

Several high-placed generals Sunday, July 17 bolted Bashar Assad’s inner circle to Turkey, including such key figures as two security services chiefs who were operations commanders of the Alawite Shabiha militia plus the former head of Syria’s chemical and biological administration who took six other generals with him,DEBKAfile reports exclusively. Another senior general was assassinated in Aleppo. Assad also received a last warning not to move his chemical weapons again or else they would be destroyed from the air.

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Israel advised to brace for Syrian missile attack – conventional or chemical
DEBKAfile Special Report
July 14, 2012, 2:36 PM (GMT+02:00)
Syrian missiles capable of carrying chemical weapons
Syrian missiles capable of carrying chemical weapons

Western military sources warned Saturday, July 14, that not only Israel, but Turkey and Jordan, too, should prepare for chemical missile strikes by a beleaguered Bashar Assad after missiles were test-fired this week in the Syrian war game against all three. There is disagreement in the West on Assad’s motives for moving his WMD out of storage. Some US officials say he is safeguarding them against falling into rebel hands; British officials report chemical weapons at Homs, Latakia and Aleppo deployed for ethnical cleansing.

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More articles below
Syria takes WMD out of storage: US: Situation incredibly dangerous
DEBKAfile Special Report
July 13, 2012, 10:36 AM (GMT+02:00)
Syrian missile drill
Syrian missile drill

Syria Thursday, July 12, test-fired advanced Scud D missiles capable of carrying chemical weapons and nerve gas and “hitting targets deep within enemy territory” as part of its war exercise. In Washington, US officials disclosed that Bashar Assad had moved parts of his huge arsenal of sarin nerve agent, mustard gas and cyanide out of storage. One warned of “the precedent of WMD being used under our watch,” calling it “incredibly dangerous to our national security."
DEBKAfile: Chemical weapons have been transferred to Syrian units.

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Two more US carriers, dozens of mini-subs rushed to Hormuz
DEBKAfile Special Report
July 12, 2012, 10:23 AM (GMT+02:00)
Tiny SeaFox submersibles for destroying mines
Tiny SeaFox submersibles for destroying mines

As Russia and NATO boosted their military strength in the E. Mediterranean,DEBKAfile reports the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier and dozens of unmanned underwater craft for destroying mines are being rushed to the Persian Gulf. By August, five aircraft carriers will be on site - four American and one French. "If Iran starts spreading underwater mines in international waterways, i.e., the Strait of Hormuz, it will find American forces ready to dismantle them," said a Western military source.

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NATO, Russian naval-air buildup in E. Mediterranean, French units to Gulf
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
July 11, 2012, 11:44 AM (GMT+02:00)
French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle
French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle

At least 11 Russian warships are heading for Syria from their Black Sea and North Sea bases; NATO’s rapid response Maritime Group 2 is on its way to the E. Mediterranean too, and five Israeli warships are already deployed. The French nuclear aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle-R91 is making for the French naval base at Port Zayid, Abu Dhabi, opposite the Strait of Hormuz. In Riyadh, high Saudi officials are convinced a US strike against Iran is coming soon - before or after the November election.

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Israel perturbed by Obama’s outreach to Mursi - against his word
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
July 9, 2012, 6:46 PM (GMT+02:00)
US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns and Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi
US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns and Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi

Israel was taken aback by US President Barack Obama’s invitation to Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi - in breach of Obama's assurances to US Jewish leaders, DEBKAfile reports. His key assurance was not to invite Mursi to the White House until the Egyptian president met certain conditions, the foremost of which was a public and specific statement of Egypt's commitment to its 1979 peace treaty with Israel as a central theme in Morsi's earliest foreign policy speech.

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Clinton: Syria on brink of catastrophe as rebels advance. The region in danger
DEBKAfile Special Report
July 8, 2012, 12:26 PM (GMT+02:00)
Hillary Clinton warns of catastrophe to region
Hillary Clinton warns of catastrophe to region

“There is still a chance to save the Syrian state from a catastrophic assault that would be very dangerous not only to Syria, but to the region,” said US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Tokyo, Sunday, July 8. “… the opposition is getting more effective… and going on the offensive against the Syrian military.” DEBKAfile: In desperation, the Assad regime may open up its WMD arsenals against the rebel advance and spread the flames to other parts of the region, including Israel. Hence her references to catastrophe and the region.

...

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Saudis are buying nuclear-capable missiles from China
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report 
July 4, 2012, 9:48 AM (GMT+02:00)

The Saudis, not invited to join negotiations either on Syria or Iran, have gone ahead with their own plans for beating Iran to the nuclear draw.

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DEBKA-Net-Weekly    A sampling from past issues
Putin Enlists China and Iran against US Interests
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #546
June 21, 2012
Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama
Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama

Russian PresidentVladimir Putin started putting his plans for Russia to displace the US at key Middle East points at the Moscow nuclear talks and the G20 summit in Mexico where he enlisted China and Iran to defeat Washington’s plans. Starting out with a scheme of revenge for Libya, his horizon has since widened to blocking US PresidentBarack Obama's Arab Revolt objectives and his policies for Syria and Iran.

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Saudi cash + oil for Chinese Nuclear Missiles
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #545
June 15, 2012
Dong-Feng 21 ballistic missiles
Dong-Feng 21 ballistic missiles

The Saudis offered Beijing $60 billion plus an oil bonanza for a single nuclear warhead.  China has agreed in principle to sell the Saudis medium-range Dong-Feng 21 ballistic missiles in return for the cash and/or having its oil requirements for the next 23 years guaranteed by Riyadh. The deal was negotiated by Saudi National Security Adviser Prince Bandar bin Sultan and Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie.

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Egyptian Brotherhood starts building Iran-Style Revolutionary Guards
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #544
June 8, 2012
Ahmed Shafiq and Mohammed Morsi
Ahmed Shafiq and Mohammed Morsi

The Brotherhood's Islamist militias, which first put in an appearance in Egypt's presidential election campaign last month to disrupt Ahmed Shafiq's rallies, quickly took on a national character. They then formed into hierarchical structures on the lines of the paramilitary militias which surfaced in the early years of Iran’s Shiite revolution in the early 1980s and evolved into Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps.

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Analysis
US military drills Day One after strike on Iran, deploys F-22s to Gulf
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
April 28, 2012, 11:12 AM (GMT+02:00)
USAF F-22s deployed to Persian Gulf
USAF F-22s deployed to Persian Gulf

US Navy, Air Force, ground, intelligence and special forces units based at home, in Europe and the Middle East, took part this week in a special exercise ordered by President Barack Obama to simulate reactions to a potential US/Israel strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, DEBKAfile reports. Advanced US stealth F-22 fighter bombers were also transferred to the Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. Washington is thinking of attacking core elements of Iran’s nuclear program to weaken its hand in negotiations. 

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Gantz: IDF and other armies ready to strike Iran’s nuclear capabilities
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
April 26, 2012, 5:30 PM (GMT+02:00)
Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz meets top US soldier Gen. Martin Dempsey in Washington
Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz meets top US soldier Gen. Martin Dempsey in Washington

Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu acted Thursday, April 26, to correct the damaging impression of divided and conflicting perceptions of the Iranian nuclear threat left by statements delivered in the last two days by himself and Defense Minster Ehud Barak. Israel’s chief of staff Gen. Benny Gantz rallied to the task. He commented Thursday that “other countries have readied their armed forces for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear sites to keep Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”

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Tripoli clashes after direct orders from Assad to Lebanese army
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
May 14, 2012, 10:54 AM (GMT+02:00)
Lebanese Tripoli catches fire from Syrian conflict
Lebanese Tripoli catches fire from Syrian conflict

Bashar Assad has stepped in directly to halt the covert war his Western and Arab foes are waging against his regime through Lebanon. DEBKAfile’s military sources disclose he is now sending Lebanese army commanders direct orders for cutting arms, money, fighters and medical supplies to the rebels, especially in Homs. Last week, Lebanese Chief of Staff Gen. Jean Kahwagi was given a crude ultimatum: Take care of the Syrian rebels’ backers in Tripoli, or else the Syrian army will enter Lebanon and do the job.

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Russia, Iran set to counter US/Israeli strike against Iran. US-led naval drill 
DEBKAfile Special Report
April 2, 2012, 7:22 PM (GMT+02:00)
Taking part in "Noble Dina" US-Israel-Greek drill
Taking part in "Noble Dina" US-Israel-Greek drill

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued a strong warning against a military attack on Iran Monday, April 2, saying that a pre-emptive strike would violate international law. His comments, made during a visit to Armenia, stopped short of threatening (the US and/or Israel) of consequences. DEBKAfile: Moscow and Tehran suspect that the US- Israeli-Greek air-naval exercise codenamed Noble Dina which is in progress across an unusually broad stretch of E. Mediterranean is meant to rehearse war action in the Persian Gulf.

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