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 Russia Courts Syria Opposition
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Russia Courts Syria Opposition as Annan Pushes for Power Sharing

By Henry Meyer - Jul 10, 2012
Russia is reaching out to the Syrian opposition to keep influence in the Middle East country after the potential exit of President Bashar al-Assad, an ally it has shielded from international censure.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet today with Abdulbaset Seida, the Syrian National Council’s new chief, after talks with Michel Kilo, another opposition leader, on July 9. Russia isn’t “clinging” to Assad and Syria should be left to decide his fate, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said yesterday on the ministry’s website.

Russia and China have blocked United Nations sanctions over Assad’s crackdown on a 17-month uprising in Syria. While Russia won’t publicly abandon support for Assad, it’s trying to pressure the opposition to agree to share power with elements of the current government, said Alexei Malashenko, a Middle East analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

“Russia understands that Assad’s days are numbered because of the civil war and his steady loss of support,” Malashenko said by phone. “It’s main concern is to keep what it can of its influence and preserve face.”

UN envoy Kofi Annan held talks in Tehran yesterday to enlist the help of Iran, another key Assad ally. World powers endorsed a new proposal by Annan on June 30 to establish a transitional government that may include representatives of the opposition and Assad’s administration.

Russia, which has accused the U.S. and its allies of seeking a forced ouster of Assad similar to the overthrow of Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi last year, has vowed to prevent the repeat of such a scenario.

Russian Warships

It dispatched at least six warships from its Northern Fleet and Baltic and Black Sea fleets to Syria yesterday, Interfax reported, citing an unidentified official. They will dock at a Russian naval resupply base in the Syrian port of Tartus, the Moscow-based news service said.

While Russia refused to halt existing weapons sales, the country won’t sign any new arms contracts with Syria until the situation stabilizes, Vyacheslav Dzirkaln, the deputy head of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, said July 9 at the Farnborough Air Show in southern England, the RIA Novosti news service reported.

The violence in Syria has claimed more than 17,000 lives, according to Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The casualties include 4,348 members of Assad’s security forces, he said.

‘Third Party’

Russia will discuss the implementation of a stalled peace plan brokered by Annan this year at the talks with Seida, the opposition leader, Bogdanov said. Bassma Kodmani, a member of the Syrian National Council, said yesterday that Assad’s opponents want the UN to mediate talks with Syria’s government once violence in the country ends.

“We think it’s going to be difficult to have a bilateral process,” she told reporters in Moscow. “We think there’s a need for a third party to be the facilitator, the mediator. Ideally, we think the UN is a legitimate and normal partner.”

An immediate cease-fire and a troop pullout from urban centers must precede any talks, Kodmani said. She said the opposition wants Russia to play a “positive role” in a handover of power in Syria, where the Assad family has ruled for four decades.

At talks in Damascus on July 9, Assad suggested a solution to end the crisis that involves trying to contain the violence in districts where clashes are particularly extreme and “step- by-step, build up and end the violence across the country,” Annan said yesterday.

Basic Principles

The Syrian National Council said it remains committed to basic principles that include bringing down Assad’s government before starting to prepare for a transition.

Efforts to reach a solution risk foundering because of the intransigence of Assad’s government and its armed opponents as well as divisions within the political opposition, said Jamie Ingram, a London-based Middle East analyst at IHS Global Insight.

“There are definitely signs that the opposition is coming under significant pressure to back Annan’s efforts,” Ingram said by e-mail yesterday. “But the likelihood of the Assad regime sticking to the plan remains virtually non-existent and the divisions within the SNC and the wider opposition movement are likely to prevent any potential negotiations from succeeding.”

-- Editors: Balazs Penz, Larry Liebert

To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Moscow at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Balazs Penz at bpenz@bloomberg.net
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